Anaconda-Deer, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS65 KMSO 122025
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
225 PM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Summer like conditions through mid week

- Gusty winds and low humidity on Wednesday with increased fire
weather concerns

- Cooler late week into the coming weekend

- Beneficial rain for northwest Montana Friday night into Saturday

The majority of the Northern Rockies will experience a hot and
relatively quiet afternoon and evening. While a few hi-res models
are showing weak storms developing over southern Idaho this
evening and traversing through west central Montana overnight.
These storms could put down a few lightning strikes but very
little rain is anticipated. The biggest concern will be gusty and
erratic winds associated with these storms.

A dry cold front pushes through the Northern Rockies on Wednesday.
The main impact from the front will be increased westerly winds
throughout the region. These winds combined with low relative
humidity will create critical fire weather conditions with the
areas of greatest concern will be the grasslands and sage areas
throughout the Northern Rockies. These winds will also cause
choppy conditions on area lakes, especially for Flathead Lake, so
a lake winds advisory has been issued. Any shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with this front will be along the Canadian
border and southwest Montana Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The region will be under westerly upper level flow Thursday and
Friday keeping temperatures near seasonal along with
afternoon/evening westerly breezes.

The bulk of the models are showing another disturbance moving
through the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday causing
the flow to become southwesterly. Around 50% of the models are
showing beneficial rain across Clearwater county in Idaho up into
northwest Montana by Saturday evening. The latest consensus of 24
hr precipitation amounts is 0.1" to 0.5" with the heaviest being
over Troy/Yaak region.

A warming and drying trend is expected Sunday into the first part
of next week as southwesterly flow remains over the region. This
flow pattern will bring subtle disturbances causing showers and
thunderstorm activity, but the path and intensity of these
features is unknown at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas north of the Highway 12 corridor including KMSO
and KGPI will experience VFR conditions into Wednesday. A dry cold
front will cause increased westerly winds on Wednesday afternoon
and evening with widespread gusts of 20 to 30 kts.

While areas south of Hwy 12, including KHRF, KSMN and KBTM, will
be dealing with the low potential of a few showers traversing
across the region overnight tonight. On Wednesday, westerly winds
will increase significantly across the area ahead of a weak cold
front, with widespread gusts of 25-35 kts expected in the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Flathead
     Reservation.

     Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for
     Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for East Beaverhead.

ID...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for
     Palouse/Hells Canyon.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$